Monday 6 April 2015

How I trade NFP

There are so many ways of trading NFP but below to me is the most comfortable way of trading NFP.

Need to know / What I perceive ?
  • NFP is always release together with another important USD news "Unemplyment Rate"
  • Only Trade NFP news when resule of "Non-Farm Employment Change" and "Unemployment Rate" do not contradict each other. It must show a clear sign of one sided bias.
  • NFP generally move 100 pips, if I missed the first 100 pips after news trade is over. There is no point of risking what I have for what you Might gain.
  • NFP move would be done within 15 min, if I do not have a position after 15 min I do not trade.
Trading NFP / My train of thought during NFP.
  1. Wait for the news; decipher the result if it is one side bias
  2. Look at the chart in 5 minute, watch for the spread during news release ensuring that you do not enter a trade when the broker has increase the spread. Be patient...
  3. Watch and enter on a massive pullback about 50% of the first 5 min candle
  4. Exit the trade as soon as price reaches 90% of the high/low of the first 5 min candle.
  5. Call it a day win or loose, do not force the market.

Example: 2015 April - NFP

Wait for news release, watch for one side BIAS.

Example USDCAD/5 min chart
  1. Watch for news for one side bias
  2. Enter on pull back 50% of the first 5 min candle
  3. Enter trade on pull back
  4. Wait for trend of news to continue
  5. Exit at 90% high/low of first 5 min candle 
  6. Sometimes trend would continue beyond the high/low of the first 5 min candle
  7. When the hype is over price would retrace and resume it course



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